As the market broke through the
resistance level at which it had stalled in the past, you
would begin purchasing stocks that were also breaking
to new highs. As the market continued to advance you
would slowly add to your positions, increasing the
percentage of you portfolio being allocated to your
long-term strategy.
The trend of the overall market would be defined by
drawing a simple trend line connecting the bottoms of
the bars on the chart of the market index. Your money
at this point would stay invested in the original
stocks purchased until you saw a change in the current
market trend or a specific stock in your portfolio
violated its trend. Once the overall market violated
its trend line, we would then begin liquidating all
positions in our portfolio, starting with the weakest
stocks first. As a true direction change became more
apparent, you would then want to take this part of your
portfolio completely back to cash and shift a larger
portion of your funds into the intermediate-term
strategy. On the chart shown below you will notice
that the NASDAQ back in January 2000 broke through
our trend line but then recovered and resumed its
trend going into the month of February. If at this
point you had sold a part of your holdings you would
simply buy them back as the trend resumed. Too often
individuals are resistant to spending a measly $20 in
commissions to enter or exit a trade, oftentimes
causing themselves tremendous losses. They won’t
spend the $20 to get out of a bad trade, but yet they
are willing to sit in a stock and lose thousands of
dollars as it completely breaks down. Generally the
first time you hear yourself say, "I should get out,"
you're probably correct.
In March 2000 the NASDAQ composite violated its
trend line for the second time, and on the way back up
bumped its head and was unable to re-establish a
healthy trend. At this point in time the long-term
part of your portfolio should be completely brought
back to cash, and your trading objectives would be
limited solely to intermediate- and short-term trading
strategies.